Key takeaways from the AFL: Why history suggests the Finals were decided; the captain’s “aggressive,” costly, and embarrassing actions; and how history shows they will be hard to catch up with.
As Round 13 of the 2026 AFL season wrapped up with its share of surprises and statement performances, the picture at the top of the ladder has become strikingly clear. Fremantle and Sydney have surged ahead, creating a gap that history suggests may prove insurmountable for their rivals. While the season still has plenty of football left to play, the dominance of the top two teams, combined with recent results and historical precedents, points toward a potential Fremantle-Sydney Grand Final. Amid the ladder drama, one high-profile captain’s off-field antics drew widespread criticism, highlighting ongoing leadership challenges for his side.
Fremantle’s emphatic 124-point thrashing of North Melbourne in Bunbury was more than just a win; it was a declaration. The Dockers piled on goal after goal, extending their winning streak and opening up a commanding lead at the top of the ladder. Sydney, meanwhile, staged a thrilling comeback to edge St Kilda by two points at the SCG, maintaining their strong position in second. These results, coupled with losses for key contenders like Hawthorn and Geelong, have left the top two in a league of their own.
Looking purely at the numbers, Fremantle sits on 48 points after 13 rounds, four wins clear of third-placed Hawthorn, while Sydney holds 44 points and a three-win buffer. With massive percentages bolstering their claims and only 10 games remaining in the home-and-away season, the gap feels mammoth. Non-Victorian teams like these benefit enormously from securing home qualifying finals, minimizing travel woes that often plague interstate sides in September.
History reinforces why this matters so much. In the AFL era, teams that have built a three-win or greater lead over third place by this stage of the season have consistently finished in the top two and advanced to the Grand Final. Examples abound: West Coast in 1991 and 2005, Essendon in 2000, St Kilda and Geelong in 2009, and more recently Sydney in 2024. These sides didn’t always win the flag, but they positioned themselves perfectly for a shot at it. Fremantle’s current 14-point buffer over third and Sydney’s 10-point edge fit neatly into this pattern.
The Dockers’ recent form is particularly ominous. Their victory over North was their biggest winning margin in club history, showcasing a ruthless attack and stingy defense. Coach Justin Longmuir has emphasized steady improvement rather than getting carried away, but the signs are undeniable. Sydney’s resilience in close games, including their narrow win over the Saints, speaks to a mental toughness that has served them well in big moments before. A head-to-head clash between the pair looms in about a month’s time at Optus Stadium – a game that could preview the season’s ultimate showdown.
For the chasing pack, the path forward looks arduous. Hawthorn dropped a heartbreaker to the Western Bulldogs, falling to 34 points. Geelong suffered a narrow loss to Adelaide, while other top-eight hopefuls like the Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Adelaide, and Brisbane are battling for consistency. The introduction of the wildcard round in 2026 adds another layer, but earning a top-six spot for a direct path remains the gold standard. Teams outside the top two will need near-perfect runs combined with slips from the leaders – a tall order given the historical precedent.
Amid these ladder-shaping results, the spotlight fell sharply on Hawthorn co-captain James Sicily. In the Friday night clash against the Bulldogs, Sicily’s aggressive, off-the-ball engagement with young forward Will Lewis became a talking point. What started as competitive banter escalated into wrestling, taunting, and celebrations that distracted from the main game. Sicily’s impact noticeably waned in the second half, registering minimal disposals as Hawthorn’s lead evaporated and the Dogs mounted a comeback victory.
Critics, including former players and coaches, described the behavior as costly and embarrassing. Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge reportedly instructed his players to target Sicily, and Lewis admitted getting under his opponent’s skin helped shift momentum. Sicily bizarrely “celebrated” a Bulldogs goal in Lewis’s face at one stage, drawing ire from observers who saw it as a lapse in leadership. Adam Simpson, a premiership coach, noted that while Sicily is a talented footballer, such actions send the wrong message to teammates and highlight areas for growth in maturity and focus.
This isn’t the first time Sicily’s fiery temperament has been scrutinized. As co-captain alongside the more level-headed Jai Newcombe, the expectation is for him to set a composed example. Leaders like Marcus Bontempelli of the Bulldogs or Tom Stewart are often praised for their unflappable nature under pressure. Sicily’s antics, while passionate, appeared to play into the opposition’s hands and may have contributed to the Hawks’ collapse. The incident underscores broader questions about mental discipline in high-stakes matches and its ripple effects on team performance.
Hawthorn’s loss was not solely down to their captain, of course. Inaccurate kicking and a spirited Bulldogs fightback played major roles. Yet the episode serves as a reminder that in a season where every point and percentage counts in the race to finals, leadership poise can be the difference between winning and watching rivals pull away. For Hawthorn, still in the mix but now needing to string together wins, addressing these on-field distractions will be crucial.
Beyond the top-two dominance and the Sicily saga, other narratives emerged from the round. Port Adelaide continued their push, but questions linger about their list strategy and potential rebuild discussions. Brisbane showed glimpses against Gold Coast, while Carlton edged Essendon in a tight affair. The wildcard format continues to spark debate, with captains and fans divided on whether those preliminary matches truly count as finals wins.
As the season enters its final stretch, Fremantle and Sydney stand as clear frontrunners. Their buffer, backed by historical trends, suggests the finals path – and potentially the Grand Final matchup – is taking shape earlier than usual. Challengers will have to produce something extraordinary to bridge the gap. For captains and coaches alike, maintaining focus amid the pressure remains paramount, as one lapse in discipline can prove expensive in the pursuit of premiership glory.
The 2026 season has delivered excitement, upsets, and clear frontrunners. Whether history fully repeats remains to be seen, but the key takeaways from Round 13 point to a compelling finish where the top two hold the cards – provided they avoid the pitfalls that have tripped up contenders before. Fans of the Dockers and Swans have every reason to feel optimistic, while the rest of the competition faces an uphill battle to rewrite the script.
