The Formula 1 world is no stranger to drama, but even by its own high-octane standards, the shockwaves caused by Christian Horner’s sudden departure from Red Bull Racing are seismic. For nearly two decades, Horner was the face of the team, the architect behind Red Bull’s transformation into a racing powerhouse. Now, with his exit confirmed, the question on everyone’s mind isn’t just why he left—but what it means for Max Verstappen.

At the heart of the speculation is a tantalizing possibility: is Verstappen already halfway out the Red Bull door and headed toward Mercedes? And if so, did Horner’s ousting seal the deal—or was it too little, too late?

The End of an Era: Horner Out

On Wednesday, Christian Horner addressed Red Bull staff with a bombshell: he was stepping down from all operational responsibilities at the team with immediate effect. Though he remains employed by Red Bull’s parent company, his days at the helm of the racing outfit are over. According to Horner, the decision was made by the Austrian board, a move that many have been anticipating ever since the death of Red Bull co-founder Dietrich Mateschitz in 2022.

Horner’s exit comes after months of internal turmoil. From sexual misconduct allegations to the departure of technical wizard Adrian Newey, the last 18 months at Red Bull have been anything but smooth. Though Horner helped build one of the most dominant teams in F1 history—boasting wins in nearly a quarter of all races they’ve entered—his position had become untenable amid growing controversy.

Now, newly appointed team principal Laurent Mekies is left to clean up the mess and lead Red Bull into a challenging future. Among his many tasks: convincing Max Verstappen to stay.

Verstappen’s Uncertain Future

Max Verstappen is currently contracted to Red Bull through 2028. But as Helmut Marko has confirmed, the contract contains performance clauses—and loopholes—that could allow Verstappen to exit early. Crucially, the Dutchman has refused to publicly commit to staying with Red Bull long-term, especially as the 2026 engine regulations draw closer.

While Red Bull may hope Horner’s exit would ease Verstappen’s discomfort, especially given the fallout of the internal allegations, the reality is more complex. Verstappen isn’t just concerned with off-track drama—he wants to win, and win consistently. And the current situation at Red Bull doesn’t exude long-term stability.

Mercedes Lurking in the Shadows

For years now, Mercedes has openly courted Verstappen. Team boss Toto Wolff has made little effort to hide his admiration, repeatedly stating he would love to see Verstappen in silver. The timing, it seems, couldn’t be better.

Mercedes has been on a mission to rebuild following Lewis Hamilton’s announcement that he’ll be leaving for Ferrari in 2025. Verstappen is the ultimate prize—a generational talent who could lead the team into a new era of dominance. And it appears the stars are aligning.

According to Sky Sports’ Craig Slater, insiders at Red Bull have acknowledged that Verstappen’s contract could be bought out—for a fee exceeding $100 million. That’s not an issue for Mercedes. Before the budget cap, the German marque was spending north of $500 million annually on its F1 operations. Now that expenses are constrained under the cap, Mercedes has significant flexibility to invest in areas not restricted—like driver salaries or contract buyouts.

A Presidential Green Light

Further fuel was added to the fire when La Gazzetta dello Sport reported that Mercedes’ upper leadership—including chairman Ola Källenius—has given the go-ahead to pursue Verstappen, regardless of cost. This level of executive backing signals serious intent.

If Mercedes is willing to meet Red Bull’s valuation and Verstappen is willing to walk, the legal and financial obstacles are surmountable. The implications would be massive—not just for the two teams involved, but for the entire sport. We could be witnessing a paradigm shift: the normalization of mega-buyouts for elite drivers, much like what we see in football.

The Smoking Gun: Nelson Piquet Jr.’s Slip

Perhaps the most compelling evidence yet came from an unlikely source: Nelson Piquet Jr., the brother of Verstappen’s partner Kelly Piquet and a close family friend. Speaking on a Portuguese-language motorsport podcast, Piquet Jr. casually mentioned, “Who knows, next year with Max there,” when discussing Mercedes.

Caught off guard, the host pressed him, to which Piquet responded, “They are talking. Everyone knows, right? Just missing final contract details.” This wasn’t idle speculation—this was a man deeply connected to the Verstappen camp confirming serious negotiations. His statement suggests that the deal isn’t just a rumor; it’s potentially nearing completion.

What Comes Next?

All signs now point toward a pivotal summer break. Toto Wolff has repeatedly mentioned that Mercedes would clarify their 2026 driver lineup during this window. If Verstappen is indeed making the switch, that announcement could be just weeks away.

And what of George Russell? Most observers expect that he, not young prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli, would be the one to make way. Russell’s rocky relationship with Verstappen and a lack of long-term momentum makes him the more expendable option. Wolff, still haunted by the toxic Hamilton-Rosberg rivalry, likely wants to avoid pairing two ultra-competitive alpha drivers again.

Final Thoughts

Christian Horner’s departure may be the final domino in a chain reaction that reshapes the Formula 1 grid. If Verstappen leaves Red Bull—a team built around him—to join Mercedes, it will mark one of the most dramatic transfers in F1 history.

This isn’t just a changing of the guard at Red Bull or a reshuffling of the grid. It’s the start of a new power struggle, one where Mercedes seems poised to return to glory, armed with the best driver in the world and a renewed sense of purpose.

But until the paperwork is signed, and the ink dries on the contract, nothing is certain. In Formula 1, the only guarantee is unpredictability.

So the question remains: will Max Verstappen be wearing silver in 2026? At this point, it feels less like a matter of if—and more like when.